April 22, 2013
7:05 pm
by: AndyM54

QED 2013

QED…. Question Explore Discover
I have not posted as much as I do sometime cos I have been trying to catch up on book 3 after a weekend away. With my wife and my best mate I went to Manchester for the 3rd QED Convention (www.qedcon.org). When the tickets become available I would highly recommend it to everyone. The weekend is a conference for skeptical and critical thinking and always has a lot of science speakers. You might not agree with everyone that speaks but they are always fascinating. This year the line up was….

Stevyn Colgan

Stevyn is a former member of the Met Police Problem Solving Unit, which developed creative and innovative approaches issues that did not respond to traditional policing methods. He is an expert on problem-oriented policing has lectured extensively throughout the UK and US. Stevyn is also an artist, writer and contributor to the popular TV series QI.

Helen Czerski

Helen is a physicist and oceanographer. She regularly gives talks around the country as well as working on several projects for television and radio, most recently appearing on Dara Ó Briain’s Science Club. She has also appeared in several documentaries for the BBC including Orbit: Earth’s Extraordinary Journey, Operation Icebergand The Transit of Venus part of the Horizon strand.

She is currently working on her own series on bubbles to be broadcast on BBC4 in 2013. Helen is also Honorary President of Winchester Skeptics.

Richard Dawkins

Richard is a household name in science, with best-selling books likeThe Greatest Show on Earth and The Selfish Gene firmly establishing him as one of the most recognisable evolutionary biologists and science writers in the world. Never afraid to be seen as outspoken or controversial, Richard has made it his mission to teach evolution to the masses and root out religious dogma or magical thinking.

Rachael Dunlop

Rachael is a full time researcher in heart disease and a Vice President of the Australian Skeptics. Working alongside past QED speaker Richard Saunders as part of the Mystery Investigators, Rachael has brought critical thinking to classrooms across Australia. With a primary interest in pseudomedicine and quackery, Rachael has regularly spoken out in the media against the anti-vaccination movement in Australia.

Natalie Haynes

Natalie Haynes is an English comedian and writer, having performed stand-up comedy since 1994. Her book The Ancient Guide To Modern Life examines what lessons the civilisations of Rome and Greece can teach society today. Natalie has written for The Guardian, The Timesand The Independent, as well as having contributed essays to The Atheist Guide To Christmas and Serenity Found – a book about Joss Whedon’s cult sci-fi show Firefly.

Lawrence Krauss

Recently described by Daniel Dennett as deserving to be included in the original Four Horsemen grouping, Lawrence Krauss is a theoretical physicist and Foundation Professor of the School of Earth and Space Exploration. He is also director of the Origins Project at Arizona State University, a leading centre for research and outreach on origins issues, from the beginnings of the universe, to human origins, to the origins of consciousness and culture.

He is the author of several bestselling books, including The Physics of Star Trek and A Universe from Nothing.

Mark Lynas

Mark is an environmental activist and author, whose books Six Degrees and The God Species detail the effect of man-made climate change on the global ecosystem. In 2009 he was appointed advisor on climate change to the President of the Maldives and was involved in the Maldives’ effort to be the first carbon neutral country on Earth. He is a frequent speaker around the world on climate change science and policy.

Brooke Magnanti

Brooke is a scientist and author, whose book The Sex Myth examines sociological research in the effects of adult entertainment and sex work. Perhaps best known for her alternate persona Belle De Jour, Brooke is a popular public speaker on the themes of biometric and forensic science, sexualisation and popular culture, and internet anonymity and identity.

Carrie Poppy

Carrie is an actress and performer whose podcast Oh No! Ross and Carrie investigates fringe claims from within, to meet with believers and proponents on their own terms. Past investigations have seen Carrie convert to Mormonism and Raelianism, as well as engaging in numerous pseudomedical practices.

Adam Rutherford

Adam is a science broadcaster, author, and in his own words ‘professional geek’.

Adam has presented several documentaries for the BBC; In The Gene Code he explored the decoding of the human genome while The Cellinvestigated the scientific quest to discover the secrets of the cell. He has also presented the episode Playing God as part of the Horizonseries, and several programmes on BBC Radio 4.

Adam writes for The Guardian as well a being a full time editor at the science journal Nature.

His new book Creation: The Story of Life on Earth and How We Are About to Start It Again will be published in 2013.

Richard Saunders

Richard Saunders is one of the stars of the Australian ‘psychic’ TV game show The One. He is best know to UK audiences as presenter of the popular Skeptic Zone podcast, and as president of the Australian Skeptics NSW. You might also have seen him in Home and Away

Rose Shapiro

Rose Shapiro is a writer and journalist, whose became interested in alternative medicine while working as a health writer for women’s magazines. Her interest led to the book Suckers: How Alternative Medicine Makes Fools Of Us All, which details the harm done by a wide range alternative medicine practitioners and the dangers posed by pseudomedicine.

Difficult to pick out highlights but for those with a scientific view rather than a skeptical view I would say Adam Rutherford (fascinating talk on evolution), Lawrence Krauss (his talk was on how we decide the shape of the universe), Helen Czerski (science toys, eating jelly beans when holding your nose, spinning raw eggs and hard boiled eggs to identify which is which) and Mark Lynas (how he changed from an anti-gm food person to pro-gm food). Natalie Haynes can put more words into 45 mintes than anyone else I have ever heard and Brooke Magnanti thinks Billie Piper did a brilliant job playing her in ‘Secret Diary Of A Call Girl’. If anyone wants more info on a specific speaker (and please check the QED website as I have not included all the people involved), if I saw them and can remember I will elaborate!

Cheers

Andy

Posted in General Skeptical Thinking

March 30, 2013
10:15 am
by: AndyM54

Speak Spirit Speak

As I often do I was dozing in bed this morning letting Radio 4 Extra wash over me when a programme comes on that made my ears and skeptical mind wake up (slightly). Luckily the present Mrs. Miles had already brought me tea so I was able to listen to the programme with an early morning cuppa. The programme in question was ‘Speak Spirit Speak’. Described on the iPlayer as ‘Voices of the dead, from aliens – or our own minds? Writer Ken Hollings probes the mysteries of electronic voice phenomena.’. It is available on the iPlayer at until 6th April 2013.

If you have never heard of electronic voice phenomena (evp) then this programme does go into some of its history and plays a number of examples. The idea of EVP is that voices are picked up on recording devices or electronic equipment in the quiet spaces between talking and that these voices are possibly the dead talking to us. When you hear these voice they can truly make you hair stand on end and are spookier than most horror films. Although the programme did have some explanations as to what these voice might be other than the dead most of the interviews were with believers in dead theory. I wanted to find out a little bit more. So I went back to an old Podcast from Hayley Stevens () called ‘The Ghost Field Guide’ (now available on iTunes under the title ‘Talk About Strange’Smilie: ;).

Hayley gives the perfect other side to the views in ‘Speak Spirit Speak’ with explanations such as picking up other radio frequencies, baby monitors on the same channel and most interesting the way a microphone with automatic gain will increase its sensitivity when it is quiet. The podcast ends with an example of EVP that was recording during an investigation Hayley was involved in. When listening back Hayley realised the evp was traffic noise and her, speaking in a nearby room.

I recommend giving both of these shows a listen, even if just to feel your hair stand on end…

Posted in General Skeptical Thinking

February 2, 2013
7:39 pm
by: AndyM54

Incurable stupidity and irresponsibility at WDDTY | The Quackometer Blog

Incurable stupidity and irresponsibility at WDDTY | The Quackometer Blog.

Posted in General Skeptical Thinking

January 12, 2013
5:55 pm
by: AndyM54

Urgent help required for a research proposal!!

This is a plea for help on short notice. A friend of mine is writing a research proposal on the subject of abortions in the over forties. If anyone is willing to help can you please comment on this post. For the moment I have allowed post to be made with no email and no name on so you can post anonymously. Please help out, it would be great to get a cross section of opinions. Please also respect the feelings of others, if you do not agree with a comment I would rather, just for this post, that you do not comment about it. Thanks very much.

If anyone would like to take part but would rather email or contact directly then please let me know (andy@skepticalthought.com) and I will put you in touch. Oh, and this is a little bit last minutes, need responses by Tuesday!

The question is:

‘Does anyone have experience of abortion as an older lady (over 40s)? Would you be prepared to share your experience for a student research proposal. The findings are aimed at providing more support for affected people.’

We really would appreciate your thoughts and thank anyone who is willing to take part.

Posted in Miscellaneous

January 6, 2013
4:25 pm
by: AndyM54

Psychic Predictions 2013

The beginning of a new year always brings hangovers, resolutions, tax returns and psychic predictions. With a quick look on the ‘Psychic and Mediums Network’ I found the predictions from Craig & Jane (who shocked the nation with the accuracy of their predictions on Channel 4′s ‘Big Breakfast’ with Paula Yates). You can read their full predictions here. Some highlights are signs that China is breaking into independent states, Google servers will be attached by terrorists  Ed Milliband will be replaced by Yvette Cooper, Simon Cowell will become more spiritual and, in May, Kate Middleton will announce she is pregnant (er… bit late this one).

So, I thought I would have a go at  my own psychic predication’s  I dusted off by crystal ball, dug out my tarot cards and emptied the contents of tea bags into cups. The results are here, my psychic predictions for 2013.

1. A town of city beginning with the letter ‘M’ will suffer from a natural catastrophe.

2. There will be an increase in UFO sightings in October this year.

3. During the summer the newspapers will break a major scandal involving a least 1 MP.

4. A major epidemic will hit in Scotland during the autumn or early winter.

5. There will a panic about something from space crashing or colliding with a populated area.

Happy New Year everyone!

Posted in Psychics

October 27, 2012
11:04 am
by: AndyM54

Talk About Strange

Hayley Stevens (Project Barnum, ex-Righteous Indignation), Hersey Club, brilliant fund raiser for people cannot afford to go to QED) has just launched a brand new website, Talk About Strange.

“Talk About Strange is the no-nonsense Paranormal Resource that provides facts and useful information about a range of Paranormal topics, demonstrating how the world isn’t as strange as it often might first seem.”

Go and read it, download the activity packs, learn, contribute and enjoy!

Posted in General Skeptical Thinking

October 21, 2012
1:37 pm
by: AndyM54

Mobile phones can give you cancer. Who decides, scientists or courts?

On the front page of The Sun the other day I noticed a headline saying “Mobiles can give you a tumour, court rules“. I was intrigued by this so I bought a copy, oh no, hold on, I stood in the shop and read the article (I don’t think not buying dented the profits of the well know superbullymarket much but every little hurts). A more detailed report can be found on the nature website, Italian court says mobile phones cause cancer.

The summary of this story is that Innocente Marcolini, a former commerce manager in Brescia, Italy, developed a tumor of the trigeminal ganglion, near his left ear. He claimed this was as a result of using a mobile phone for 6 hours a day for 12 years because of his job. The tumor was successfully removed although Marcolini was left with severe pain and decided to sue for compensation from his company.

Currently there is no scientific proof that use of mobile phones cause cancer. What we most likely have here is a case of correlation rather than causation. This is an area where more research is required as there is some suggestion that extremely heavy use might have an effect, and the length of time required for cancers to develop is many year and difficult to study (see http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100517/full/news.2010.246.html). What is more worrying is that a court can decide, without supporting scientific evidence, a fact like this. There is no obligation for UK courts to follow the Italian judgement but it is possible we will see an increase in cases like this, even though the scientific evidence has not changed.

Who should we believe, a court or scientists?

Posted in General Skeptical Thinking

September 22, 2012
7:12 pm
by: AndyM54

Multiple Sclerosis & Alternative Therapies Part 3: Homeopathy

I started to research this area by looking at what some Multiple Sclerosis charities said about homeopathy. I only got to look at one and was so horrified I wrote to them.

——————————————————————————————

Dear Sir or Madam,

I am a supporter of the majority of your work and find a lot of the information on your website is excellent for people with Multiple Sclerosis or people like me who care for someone (in my case my wife) with MS. Where I find your website to be worrying and, in my opinion, potentially dangerous is the section on Alternative Therapies. There are a number of ‘therapies’ in this section that I have issues with but I will focus on the Homeopathy page today.


I would like to expand on ‘What Is it?’ to explain how a homeopathic ‘remedy’ is made. As you say above the homeopath will choose a substance that they claim will help the person, for example if you are having trouble sleeping they may choose caffeine. As caffeine can give you trouble sleeping and ‘like cures like’ then in a homeopathic remedy caffeine will help you sleep.

The next stage is to dilute the active ingredient. In this example they take 1 drop of caffeine and dilute it in 99 drops of water. This is called a centesimal. They then take 1 drop of this centesimal and dilute it in another 99 drops of water to produce a 2-centesimal (normally shortened to 2C). At 2C this is now 99.99% water and 0.01% caffeine. This process is continued until the mixture is at the required strength as homeopaths believe that each dilution makes the remedy stronger. Homeopathic remedies are often sold at 6C (0.000 000 000 1%) and even 30C (0.000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 1%) dilutions. The resulting liquid is then often dripped onto small sugar pills to take.

At 12C you reach the Avogardo Limit, the point at which there likely to be none of your original substance left. By 30C it will be just water.

In order to further strengthen the remedy at each stage it is vigorously shaken, this called succusion. According to homeopaths this whole process allows the water to retain the memory of what was originally diluted in it.

Does this sound like something we should be suggestion could help someone with Multiple Sclerosis?

Do you have any evidence (trials, studies etc.) that back up this claim? You also state that homeopathy can ‘detoxify the body’. The body detoxifies itself, it does not need help and certainly not from homeopathy.

I am not sure where to start with this section. You cannot diagnose Multiple Sclerosis by using a machine to measure non-existant energy points on the body, and then work out what remedy to use by putting them on the machine. This is complete rubbish and would not be called into question by ‘some’ scientific quarters, it would be called into question by ALL scientific quarters. Bacterial infections, viruses and parasites? Found by a homeopath?

I have already gone through the way a homeopathic remedy is made. Tinctures to remove debris and toxins in the body are not required. The body flushes out toxins all by itself. Having MS does not stop this process.

I find this whole part of your website and factsheets very worrying. There have been instances of people being told to stop conventional treatments by homeopaths and the idea that you are recommending this as a possible way to treat people is dangerous to them.

I hope you will reconsider whether this is the sort of information your charity wishes to promote and take it off of your website and literature.

Posted in Health

June 24, 2012
9:47 pm
by: AndyM54

The woman who says she is beating breast cancer thanks to low fat diet: Vicky ate spices instead of taking powerful drugs.

The Mail Online are carrying this story: The woman who says she is beating breast cancer thanks to low fat diet: Vicky ate spices instead of taking powerful drugs.

The hook of this story is that by eating a low fat diet with a lot of Tumeric rather than taking drugs she is beating cancer. I really hope she does beat cancer, my father-in-law is undergoing treatment for cancer as the moment so I know a little as to what it is like to have family members fighting this.

The thing is this headline is not strictly, in any way, actually, true.

Vicky Stewart, who has breast cancer, has had chemotherapy, radiotherapy and surgery. What she has chosen to do is to not take Tamoxifen after her treatment. Tamoxifen is used after breast cancer treatment to stop estrogen cancer cells growing. Vicky Stewart has refused to take this due to worry about side effects.

There is a suggestion that tumeric can help cancer treatment along side conventional treatment. The theory is that curcumin (found in tumeric) increases the sensitivity of cancer cells to chemotherapy and there are clinical trials going on to test this but it is not proven.

So she is eating a healthy diet, brilliant, a healthy diet will help any health condition, maybe the tumeric will help (maybe not) but I think it is more likely that the chemo, radiotherapy, surgery and her health care team have much more to do with beating cancer than the headline suggests.

Andy

 

Posted in General Skeptical Thinking

June 17, 2012
2:02 pm
by: AndyM54

This is not a misleading post. MS, cannabis, depression and exercise

but it is a post about misleading, particularly misleading headlines. Recently I had two news stories regularly appearing in my google alerts feeds, various versions were picked up. Here is an example of each:
Exercise Doesn’t Treat Depression, Says New Study
and
Study shows cannabis does not effect progressive MS.

Before I continue I want to make clear that any criticisms I raise are my own opinions and are aimed at the reporting of the studies, not the studies or the researchers.

Both of these are subject that interest me as I am prone to bouts of depression and my wife has Multiple Sclerosis (MS). From what had previously read and heard about I was under the impression that there was scientific evidence that cannabis did have an effect on MS (although I was could not be sure if what I read was about progressive or remitting / relapsing MS) and that exercise has a positive effect on people with depression (I thought we all knew this don’t we?). So, rather than skim read I read properly and dig out a bit more information on the studies. Both the studies are proper clinical trials with controls, placebos and blinding where possible.

The exercise / depression study was carried out by teams from the Universities of Bristol, Exeter and the Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry. It involved 361 people aged between ages 18 and 69, who had recently seen their doctor regarding depression and were receiving conventional treatment. For  8 months a randomly selected group received what the researchers called a TREAD (TREAtment of Depression with physical activity) intervention. This involved sessions of counselling up to 13 times on how to increase your amount of physical activity, the aim to get to 150 minutes a week in 10 minutes sessions or as much as you can if this amount was not realistic for you. At the end of the study the researchers did not find a change in the level of depression between this group and the group not receiving the intervention. Headline conclusion on the articles (NOT from the researchers I hasten to add) , ‘Exercise Does Not Help Depression’ or a variant of this.

Take a closer look at this though. The participents were not made to exercise, they were encouraged. There is no indication as to how much the amount of exercise participants actually did varied between the two groups. From my experience with my own depression my levels vary a lot over time and although the randomisation should even this out it is worth bearing in mind.  Depending on what version of the story you read you may get additional comment that exercise has many many benefits and should always be encouraged! Of course the study is interesting and adds to the body of work on depression and treatments but it is a long way from proving that exercise does not help depression.

So, onto the cannabis and multiple sclerosis study. This study was from Plymouth University and had 500 participants followed over and 3 year period. Two-thirds were give a capsule containing the active ingredient in cannabis (tetrahydrocannabinol, or THC) and the remaining third were given a placebo. The results, as the headlines said, ‘Cannabis does not help MS’.

Again, let’s look closer at the study. What the researchers actually set out to study was whether cannabis could halt the progression of progressive MS (there are different forms of MS, see this post for more info). Disappointingly for all sufferers of progressive MS the study didn’t show any evidence that this was the case. What the headline suggest is that cannabis (or THC) is no use for progressive MS, however what other studies have shown is that is that cannabis can help ease the symptoms of MS (particularly pain and spasticity, or muscle rigidity). From the better article on the MS Society website is this quote:
‘Dr Doug Brown, Head of Biomedical Research at the MS Society, said: “There are currently no treatments for people with progressive MS to slow or stop the worsening of disability. The MS Society is committed to supporting research in this area and this was an important study for us to fund.”
“While this study sadly suggests THC is ineffective at slowing the course of progressive MS, we will not stop our search for effective treatments. We are encouraged by the possibility shown by this study that THC may have potential benefits for some people with MS and we welcome further investigation in this area.”

So, in conclusion, I would encourage people to always read the whole articles and do follow-up research yourself on any that interest you. Do NOT believe the headlines!

Andy

 

Posted in General Skeptical Thinking, Health